| Sport | Record | Win % | ROI | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tier reflects the engine's conviction classification — a measure of how confident the model is in each pick. Category reflects the product routing system's recommendation, introduced April 9, 2026. Earlier picks show "—" under Category because routing didn't exist yet. When the two columns disagree, Category determines what the bankroll bets — Tier is shown for transparency about the engine's view.
Tier glossary: TOP PLAY = highest engine conviction. SOLID = strong engine conviction. AVOID = engine has a directional view but conviction falls below SOLID threshold. LEAN and HIDDEN GEMS appeared during the Conviction Era (Feb–Mar 2026) and were retired on March 6, 2026 after performance review showed they degraded results.
Every pick is published on Best Bets before games start and graded against actual results. Wins and losses are determined by the spread or total at the time of publication. Pushes (exact line hits) and postponements are tracked but excluded from win rate calculations. ROI uses actual stored line prices where available; picks before April 20, 2026 use standard -110 odds. The Routing Era (April 9, 2026 onward) uses bankroll routing to classify picks; the Conviction Era (prior) used tier-based conviction scoring.
The bug. The formula converting predicted margin to win probability for MLB moneyline picks was miscalibrated by approximately 10×. The model was reporting 75% confidence on picks that historically won 53% of the time.
The fix. Empirically refit the calibration parameter against 187 historical picks from the Routing Era (April 9 – May 14, 2026). Confidence is now reported within 1 percentage point of historical win rate.
What changed:
Still to verify. NHL and NBA moneyline scales remain at the legacy value. Sample sizes (n=23 and n=4 respectively) are too small to refit. We'll recalibrate each sport when it has ≥75 historical ML picks. Until then, NHL and NBA ML edge claims should be read with the same skepticism the MLB fix made visible — they may have similar issues we cannot yet verify.
This is the kind of thing that gets quietly patched in commercial picks services. We're publishing it because trust is the product.